Ukraine

[Char]

I wonder if the same tears will still be around in a few weeks time.Cynical I know .

Not really cynical, the world seems to have forgotten the poor people in Afghanistan, so it stands to reason that the world will move on to something else shortly.

[exile]

You are right. However the impacts of this will be with us for quite some time.

Afghanistan was easy to forget. It was far away and di not affect us, the general European public.

Some might see Ukraine as being far away but it is much closer and we will feel the results for probably years:

1. Oil and gas prices are likely to stay high until there is a slump in the economy.
2. There will be all sorts of moves to change energy sources. Nuclear plants planned to be closed will continue to run. Ditto coal fired power stations. Renewable energy sources will be exploited more and faster. A lot of previous legislation will be steam rollered into the ground to allow all of these things to happen pdq.
3. Wheat prices will rise. Ukraine produced about 4-5% of the world's hard wheat. Russia produced about 18%. So Pasta and bread prices will rise - how far the French government will be able to hold prices down will need to be seen. That will knock on to other carbohydrates as people switch - so rice and potatoes will see a rise in prices.
4. Pigs and chickens are fed on cereals. So expect eggs, pork, chicken and similar foods to also rise in prices.
5. For many companies Russia and the Ukraine have been significant markets. For some time markets will be narrowed.
6. And where this could all easily lead to - against a background where inflation has been starting to take off, these extra pressures could lead to additional pressures on the world economies and lead to further inflation, then stagflation, then depression and in the worst case financial collapse.


Have a nice weekend everybody.

[Blaze]

There's no doubt that Europeans see Ukrainians as much closer in culture than people from Afghanistan, Middle Eastern and African countries, plus of course the geographical proximity.

[niemeyjt]

2. There will be all sorts of moves to change energy sources. Nuclear plants planned to be closed will continue to run. Ditto coal fired power stations. Renewable energy sources will be exploited more and faster. A lot of previous legislation will be steam rollered into the ground to allow all of these things to happen pdq.

We may also see gas fields, like Cambo, being opened despite previously being rejected. Maybe fracking will resume also. A lot of green policy will need to be reversed.

6. And where this could all easily lead to - against a background where inflation has been starting to take off, these extra pressures could lead to additional pressures on the world economies and lead to further inflation, then stagflation, then depression and in the worst case financial collapse.

On the Today program this morning they said UK inflation could hit 10% this year - with all that that entails.

Elsewhere, a weak response could embolden China to try to take Taiwan - especially if domestic pressures increase on Xi - there's nothing like a good war to distract the masses.

[Hotrodder]

Boris is benefiting from that one at the moment.

[hughnique]

Odds on the Chinese will grab Taiwan whilst there is a distraction elsewhere. The two biggest threats to any semblance of being able to live peacefully, Russia and China, possibly with the addition of rocket man.

[Sparkle]

FYI:

https://www.chargedretail.co.uk/2022/03 ... ar-effort/

[Spardo]

When this first kicked off my first thoughts were 1956, 1968, 2022, oh no, not again.
My thoughts yesterday when I heard Zilensky's understandable but illogical accusation to NATO, 1914 (Belgium), 1939 (Poland), 2022 oh no, not again.

[niemeyjt]

You are right. Whilst it sounds good, a no-fly zone would rapidly become Russia vs NATO - with all that will entail.

However, we can do more. Countries with working Soviet-era equipment should transfer it to Ukraine - like Bulgaria, Slovakia and others with MiG 29s. Bulgaria complains it will have no air defence - so NATO needs to fill the void - I think there are already RAF squadrons down that way - so the UK needs to send more - and train up the pilots in newer aircraft and supply at a preferential rate.

And longer term, we have to accept that the so-called "Peace Dividend" is no more - with all that entails.

[Blaze]

Whilst it sounds good, a no-fly zone would rapidly become Russia vs NATO - with all that will entail.

+ 1
NATO has to be very careful how far it goes before it will be seen by Russia as confrontational.