Climate Change

[Quiksilver]

At last someone is saying what I've been thinking for a while https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... ate-models
I don't think anyone would or could deny that the planet's climate is changing, but the reasons for that and the way it will go in the future? It's not as clear cut as it's made out to be.

[exile]

It depends what you mean about not as clear cut.

Temperatures are rising. No debate.
CO2 and Methane (and others) are greenhouse gases. No debate.
CO2 and Methane largely (but not solely) come from human activities - directly and indirectly. No debate.

So as far as I can see the only debate is to what extent other factors may be heating up the world. I have long argued that other factors may be at play, although I cannot quantify what those factors may be.

However, if we do not want to all fry (exaggeration) then it is beholden on us to minimise the things we can influence - CO2, Methane and water vapour generation.

The fact that this theory is backed by Rogan (a well known scientist - not) should immediately ring alarm bells.

[ExMontpelliérain]

It depends what you mean about not as clear cut.

Temperatures are rising. No debate.
CO2 and Methane (and others) are greenhouse gases. No debate.
CO2 and Methane largely (but not solely) come from human activities - directly and indirectly. No debate.

So as far as I can see the only debate is to what extent other factors may be heating up the world. I have long argued that other factors may be at play, although I cannot quantify what those factors may be.

However, if we do not want to all fry (exaggeration) then it is beholden on us to minimise the things we can influence - CO2, Methane and water vapour generation.

The fact that this theory is backed by Rogan (a well known scientist - not) should immediately ring alarm bells.

This. Plus Jordan Peterson “doesn’t like models”, except in psychology:

8EB9C824-F95D-4D21-A413-E98E8E1437C8.jpeg

[Polarengineer]

They say a picture is worth a thousand words. Seeing the above, another failure.

[Quiksilver]

It depends what you mean about not as clear cut.

So as far as I can see the only debate is to what extent other factors may be heating up the world. I have long argued that other factors may be at play, although I cannot quantify what those factors may be.
The fact that this theory is backed by Rogan (a well known scientist - not) should immediately ring alarm bells.

'Other factors' could equally well cause cooling, whether overall or partial, as in just some continents. It's happened before in the planet's history, so why is all the emphasis on warming? I sincerely believe that we over-exaggerate our own importance in the grand scheme of things. Perhaps we're in for a (terminal) lesson in humility and the futility of trying to predict the unpredictable.

[Hotrodder]

Anyone fretting about a warming trend should move to Brittany. We could do with it.
The only thing I have noticed is that we get more cloud and rain than we did 20 years ago. Terrific if you like the colour grey and don't mind wearing wellies a lot.

[exile]

It depends what you mean about not as clear cut.

So as far as I can see the only debate is to what extent other factors may be heating up the world. I have long argued that other factors may be at play, although I cannot quantify what those factors may be.
The fact that this theory is backed by Rogan (a well known scientist - not) should immediately ring alarm bells.

'Other factors' could equally well cause cooling, whether overall or partial, as in just some continents. It's happened before in the planet's history, so why is all the emphasis on warming? I sincerely believe that we over-exaggerate our own importance in the grand scheme of things. Perhaps we're in for a (terminal) lesson in humility and the futility of trying to predict the unpredictable.

Other factors could indeed reverse the trends.
Name one that will have effect before the end of this century. The most obvious are proximity to the sun and solar activity. Neither of these will significantly change in that time period.
Want any more straws? Or do you have any cogent alternatives?

[Quiksilver]

No need to be catty I wouldn't presume to try to predict anything, because I'm not well-read-up enough on the subject, let alone a scientist! Solar activity, yes, jet stream, Gulf stream, 'switches' perhaps caused by natural or man-made events like the 2011 Japanese earthquake and endless deep-drilling of the planet's surface. The list of possible cataclysms goes on. I just can't help feeling that the generally-accepted predictions carry about as much weight as your average 10-day weather forecast

[exile]

No cattiness intended but your list of potential causes of a major reversal of climate change reads like a FB pseudo science list of long term catastrophes.
Jet stream is a consequence of weather and climate not the cause of it.
Gulf stream switch is caused by too much fresh water at the arctic fringes. Too much fresh water is caused by increasing temperatures at the northern latitudes causing arctic ice to melt and glaciers (principally Greenland) to melt. It will seriously mess up W European weather and switch it from temperate climate to more like that of Vladivostok - hot summers but freezing winters but average temperatures will hardly change. There is no scientific evidence that I am aware of that suggests that the whole world will cool down.

There are many things that will impact weather (volcanoes, major earthquakes, major fires across forest, tundra etc., some may impact climate locally for example turning off the North Atlantic Drift but effects will be short lived and/or limited in their geographic spread.

Without wishing to be over-critical or unkind the list of catastrophes reads like a wish list to return climate to "normal".

I put normal in inverted commas because climate is the accumulation of weather over extended time periods. I personally don't believe that climate has ever been stable over the course or recorded history. We have had Middle Ages Warm period, The little Ice Age and prior to that proper Ice Ages. Climate is mobile. It is moving into areas never before recorded and we do have the ability to tweak it. We can leave it to chance (perhaps there will be a catastrophe as per your list) or we can at least try to do something.

Trump would have you hope on the first.