Ukraine

[Spardo]

@tagh

Putain is doing much more than just trying to neutralize the states on this frontier:

Are you allowed to swear in here, Tagh? Mind you a pertinent insult for a really nasty man.

To be serious for a moment, why is nobody worried about Finland, a former Russian province and for hundreds of years subjected to aggression from Russia? How could they have missed the boat and not joined NATO when the Baltics and Eastern states did? To a slightly lesser extent Sweden too. Long officially neutral, it is only a few hundred years since it was the official bete noire of Russia, invading it several times.

As to Eurovision, a good move, not a joke, far more encouragement to the growing opposition on the streets of Russia along with all sports and cultural activities without actually costing them money. It will cost them money as well of course, as it will us, but something I am prepared to put up with. The very least I can do.

[niemeyjt]

Putin is already threatening Sweden and Finland not to join NATO.

I do not see him threatening Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia - but I guess Article 5 applies.

However, Russia has valid security concerns as NATO and accompanying troops and missiles encroach on its territory. Credit where credit is due, I think Macron at least has cottoned on to the need for neutral buffer states rather than an ongoing prodding of the bear to see how it responds.

[Blaze]

Putin is already threatening Sweden and Finland not to join NATO.

I think they've left it a little late. They were quite happy sitting on the fence in their neutrality. Given the current resistance in Ukraine, he might find he spreads himself too thinly if he were to carry out his threat. He doesn't know what furies he might unleash.
Do we know if there are already Russian troops on or near the Finnish border ?

[Bayleaf]

Here's a sad story - can't give a source, as it's from "the youngsters" chatting to each other. An 18yr old Russian soldier found himself overwhelmed by Ukranians, who basically said "Why are you here? You're not welcome here, get lost". He apparently just sat down and cried, not knowing what to do - no training, no desire to lay the boot in. Putin's army is not as well trained as some think.

May not be true - but wouldn't surprise me if it was.

[Blaze]

Putin's army is not as well trained as some think.

I can well believe it, and I've read that they are not well fed. The untrained Ukranians have one advantage over the untrained Russians : motivation and desire to defend their country, even to die for it. However, this will not be enough against missiles and tanks.

[niemeyjt]

I have heard separately that Russian troops were misled about what was happening and where they were going - and didn't want to hurt Ukrainians.

I am surprised though if Putin sent in unskilled/untrained cannon-fodder, rather than elite troops, for what he hoped would be a rapid win.

I am impressed that he was sent packing and not strung up from a lamp post.

And I am scared Putin will ratchet up the violence and destruction as he has failed to get his quick win.

[Blaze]

The Ukrainian President is desperate for more troops which unsurprisingly NATO will not supply, so is calling for the formation of a volunteer "foreign legion". However more countries are going to supply arms and ammunition though it remains to be seen how they will be delivered ...
Putin will not suffer the humiliation of being repulsed for long but is unlikely to deploy nuclear weapons. He hopes his threats will frighten people ...

[Wilbro]

Shades of 1939 when Russia invaded Finland. Stalin sent troops but insisted they must only come from Stalingrad. They got their arses kicked by the Finns who sent them packing. Stalin retaliated by sending in a force of 140,000 to get the job done. If the Ukrainians keep them out, which is unlikely, will the modern equivalent of 140,000 be a nuclear option?
Don't forget, Putin is a murderous lunatic.

[hughnique]

Evidently "some" Russian banks have been excluded from SWIFT, right nonsensical move, chuck them all out, no chance of the remaining being used as launderers

[Blaze]

Evidently "some" Russian banks have been excluded from SWIFT, right nonsensical move, chuck them all out, no chance of the remaining being used as launderers

I don't think it's quite as simple as that. One reason is that SWIFT is also used to pay the Russians. For example Germany pays Russia for energy and if payment is stopped, Russia will stop deliveries. They may do that anyway but it's better to do this kind of sanction in stages to try to slow down the inevitable economic repercussions. Going after the oligarchs who are supporters of Putin is one way of weakening Russia financially. The deployment of troops will not be cheap, nor is the price of each missile fired ...